Responding to a leak of internal Trump campaign polling data that spells doom for the president’s 2020 re-election, campaign manager Brad Parscale told CBS News that neither he nor Trump were putting too much stock in the numbers.
“I just think the country is too complex now to call a couple hundred people and ask them what they think,” Parscale said. “There are so many ways and different people who show up and vote now. The way turnout works now. The abilities we have now to turn out voters. The polling can’t understand that. And that’s why the polling was so wrong in 2016. It was 100% wrong. Nobody got it right — not one public poll. The reason why — it’s not 1962 anymore.”
According to the Trump campaign internal data from March, the president is facing near-insurmountable deficits in many must-win states. Against Joe Biden, Trump trails by double-digits in Minnesota, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Maine, Virginia, and Michigan. And in other states like North Carolina and Georgia, he’s also trailing, though by lesser amounts. In Texas he’s only beating Biden by a thin 2-point margin.
But Parscale insists that the numbers are nothing to worry about. He told CBS that Trump would win in an “electoral landslide” against whatever Democrat wound up winning the nomination.
“I think even more electoral points than he did last time,” he said.
If Parscale sounds like his spin machine is running into overdrive, it might be because it is. But it might also be based in reality. Let’s face it: Every single poll in the country showed Trump losing – and losing badly – to Hillary Clinton in 2016. And this year, we see a lot of the same signs that we saw back then. Lopsided polls favoring the Democrats…combined with other, intangible phenomena favoring the president.
Such as: A booming economy.
Such as: 20,000 people filling an Orlando arena to see Trump kick off his campaign.
Such as: A new USA Today poll that says Trump has a 49% job approval rating.
Such as: Yale professor Ray Fair’s reliable model, which predicts that Trump will win the election with at least 54% of the total vote share.
Such as: The fact that Democrats are not even slightly excited about frontrunner Joe Biden, who is far from the socialist-progressive champion the base has been looking for.
A lot can happen between now and the election, and making predictions this far out is a fool’s game. But Parscale is right about one thing: The polls have been wrong before.