Trump’s Secret Weapon For 2024

Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

( – Poll results are hinting at a potential edge for former President Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 elections. Despite the polarizing political climate that has surrounded Trump since his initial presidential campaign in 2015, he seems to be garnering support from a segment of voters who didn’t participate in the 2020 elections, where he was defeated by Joe Biden.

A recent CNN survey revealed a notable trend: Trump’s lead over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 race is significantly bolstered by individuals who abstained from voting in 2020. For instance, in Georgia, this group favored Trump by a 26-point margin, and in Michigan, by an impressive 40-point margin. This is particularly striking considering Biden’s victory in both these states in the last election. The survey, however, did not clarify whether these voters were ineligible to vote previously due to age or other factors.

In terms of overall registered voters, Trump seems to be leading in both Georgia (49% to Biden’s 44%) and Michigan (50% to Biden’s 40%). Notably, the proportion of voters unwilling to support either candidate is as significant as the margin between Trump and Biden.

Another poll, conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, indicates that almost one-third of Trump’s support in key battleground states for 2024 comes from those who didn’t vote in 2020. In contrast, this demographic accounts for only 20% of Biden’s supporters. Similarly, an Emerson College poll highlights that about 8% of non-voters from 2020 prefer Trump over Biden, with only 5% leaning towards Biden.

These figures, although modest, could be crucial in a tightly contested election. Political consultant Jay Townsend emphasizes the importance of targeting non-voters, a strategy effectively employed by Trump in 2016. He suggests that capturing the interest of younger voters, who have recently become eligible, could be pivotal, especially in swing states.

Moreover, Trump appears to have a stronger hold on his 2020 voter base compared to Biden. A New York Times survey across several states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) indicates that 75% of Trump’s support for 2024 consists of his 2020 voters, while Biden retains 69% from his 2020 base.

In summary, Trump’s potential advantage in the upcoming elections may lie in his appeal to new voters, particularly those who didn’t participate in the last election, and his ability to maintain his existing voter base. This dynamic could play a significant role in the highly anticipated 2024 presidential race.

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