By the time the 2020 election rolls around, Hispanics will officially be the largest minority group in the electorate, outpacing black voters by a full 2 million individuals. This could pose a startling problem for the Democratic Party, and it is one they’ll have to confront if they want to defeat President Donald Trump. Why? Because despite all the scaremongering and all the left’s insistence that Trump is a racist who hates anyone browner than George Washington, the truth is that his popularity is only growing among the Hispanic electorate.
In a piece this week, Politico analyst David Bernstein said that Democrats were going to need to confront the truth of Trump’s surging Hispanic popularity sooner than later.
“If Hispanic Americans are in fact showing surging approval of Trump, he could be on his way to matching or exceeding the 40 percent won by George W. Bush in 2004,” Bernstein wrote. “If Trump does 12 percentage points better than his 2016 numbers with the growing Hispanic vote, it pretty much takes Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina off the table for Democrats, who would need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to reach the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House. At the same time, that 12-point shift would give Trump a clear shot at winning Colorado and Nevada, states where Hispanic voters make up well over 10 percent of the electorate and where Clinton won by 5 percentage points or less in 2016.”
It’s hard to deny that Trump’s numbers with Hispanics are surging. A new Politico poll has him at 42% among Latino voters. Prior to the 2016 election, most pollsters said Trump was in the teen digits with Hispanics (though he ultimately won 28% of the Hispanic vote). That shows both a dramatic surge and leaves open the possibility that even with polls showing him at 42%, the real number could be much higher.
All of which just has to make us laugh, because it is the clearest sign pointing to the incompetency of the Republican establishment you could ask for. In the wake of the 2012 election, the GOP thinkers published an election autopsy that advised the party to embrace amnesty, turn away from any tough immigration talk, and do everything but sell the soul of America to win back Hispanic voters. And then Trump came along and did the exact opposite. Flash forward a few years, and presto, he’s more popular with Hispanics than any major Republican in years. How do you like that?
Republicans are never going to beat Democrats at the identity-politics game. And Donald Trump is showing everyone in Washington that there’s absolutely no reason to try.