If you were a betting man, you would be wise at this point to put your money on the Republicans having a contested convention. With Donald Trump (at press time) looking at a loss in Wisconsin, the path to 1,237 is looking increasingly doubtful for either him or Ted Cruz. John Kasich, of course, doesn’t even have a prayer.
A contested convention could result in many outcomes. The rules for the 2016 convention haven’t even been written yet. Some Trump supporters think the RNC should give him the nomination if he is within a hundred points or so of the clinch. Others argue that the delegate mark is what it is; if Trump can’t bring it home, the party is under no obligation to crown him the winner.
But you would be hard-pressed to find any average American who wants to see the party elders rip the nomination away from the voters. Trump die-hards are going to be upset if Cruz nabs the nomination on a second ballot. The Trump haters will love it. But if the party pulls a fast one and someone like Paul Ryan walks out of Cleveland as the nominee, you are going to see a revolt that Republicans are not ready to handle. While they’re running around, trying to keep their cushy Establishment positions, they might want to spare a glance to the people. If the party becomes obsolete, so too will their lifestyle.
Karl Rove, who has been hoping the party can push the reset button in Ohio, said, “A fresh face might be the thing that would give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary.”
No, a fresh face will ensure that Obama’s legacy becomes cemented in stone. It’s true: Cruz and Trump both have their issues. It is reasonable to be concerned about how either of them will fare in the general. But a nominee Ryan, a nominee Romney, or a nominee Whoever The Voters Did Not Choose will spell certain doom in November.