The media is obsessed with one figure from the national impeachment polls: The overall percentage of American voters who believe that Trump should be impeached. But, even if we set aside the biased nature of this polling, the overly-weighted Democrats represented in the polls, and the relative meaninglessness of polling people on a subject they don’t fully understand, the emphasis on a national number discounts a very pertinent fact: We don’t elect presidents in a national poll.
Two recent polls show that Democrats and their push to impeach is unpopular in swing states that the party needs to win if they want to (actually) remove Donald Trump from the White House next November. In one from Marquette Law, Wisconsin voters expressed their dissatisfaction with the impeachment inquiry.
“When asked if Trump should be impeached and removed from office, 44 percent say that Trump should be removed, 51 percent say he should not be impeached and removed and four percent say they don’t know,” the poll found.
In 2016, Wisconsin went to Trump by the thinnest of margins: Only 0.77% separated Trump from Hillary Clinton. If Democrats are upside down on impeachment in Wisconsin when the election rolls around, they are going to have a hard time turning that into a winning margin.
The New York Times, in conjunction with Siena College, surveyed swing state voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida. The results were even more devastating for Democrats than the ones that Marquette found. In those states, all integral to the success of the 2020 candidate, voters oppose impeachment 53% to 43%.
With an unpopular impeachment proceeding trailing them, Democrats may be unable to replicate the results of their so-called “blue wave” from last year. They’re counting on high turnout, but you can bet that Trump’s supporters will be out in (at least) equal force. And if Trump is coming off an acquittal in the Senate, he’s going to have an extraordinary amount of momentum heading into the election. Democrats will have just the opposite as they struggle to recover from a failed coup.
All of this will be compounded by a weak nominee, and at this point, that’s pretty much all Democrats have to choose from.