Democrats are still drunk off their big win in Pennsylvania this week, and they believe that it could signal – as one writer put it – a blue “tsunami” in the midterms. To be fair, there is cause for their optimism. While there has been nothing traditional about the Age of Trump, conventional wisdom suggests that when the president’s approval ratings are below 50%, his party gets walloped in the midterms. Trump’s approval ratings are hovering somewhere in the high thirties to low forties right now, which could herald trouble. And there’s no doubt about it – the Democrats had no business winning this congressional district in Pennsylvania, which went for Trump by 20 points in 2016.
For the most part, we’ve been rolling our eyes about all the hype about a “blue wave” coming in November, because we just don’t think the Democrats have the momentum they think they have. This was borne out two weeks ago in the Texas primaries when Democrat voters failed to match the enthusiasm of Republican voters despite all of the predictions from the biased pundits.
But more fundamentally, we just don’t think that Democrats have that same fire beneath them that they had in the first few months after Trump’s inauguration. It’s been more than a year, and even the dullest voter can now see that he is not the second coming of Hitler. And while there they are still pushing that whole Russian conspiracy thing hard in the media, voters on the ground have to see by now that it’s a farce. There was no “collusion.” It was a fantasy from the beginning.
But what really tipped the scale was the tax bill. The Democrat-friendly media has been downplaying the economic impact of the relief bill at every opportunity, but even they cannot deny that all indicators point to success. Wild success. And that includes polls that show Americans with more consumer confidence and entrepreneurs with more investing confidence than they’ve had in years. Unemployment is at record low for many ethnicities and near rock-bottom for the country as a whole. How many people – even die-hard Obama voters – really want to go back to the way things were for that soggy eight years under Mr. Hope and Change?
All that said…
There is still a chance that Democrats will run off with the show, and Conor Lamb demonstrated to the country exactly how to do it. Save perhaps Joe Manchin in West Virginia, you’d have a hard time finding a more conservative Democrat than the guy who just won in Pennsylvania. And in an era where even people like Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris are getting pummeled FROM THE LEFT, he’s a considerable outlier. Should the national party learn a lesson from his victory and run to the middle, Republicans could indeed be in some serious trouble when November rolls around.