Based on a recent national poll tracker analysis by FiveThirtyEight, the Democrat’s odds of retaining their majority in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are increasing.
Currently, the Democratic party is considered to be the favorite in the Senate, while the Republicans are still expected to win the House. Democrats though have been gaining momentum with their odds increasing drastically.
FiveThirtyEight said that according to their latest estimations the GOP had a 72 percent chance of taking the house, while Democrats were at 28 percent. While this appears like a big difference, this is a positive move upward for the Democrats.
A September 2 analysis by the same group found that the Republican odds were 75 percent while the Democrats had 25 percent of winning the house. This is a three-point increase in the past two weeks.
In the Senate, the results appear to be in favor of the Democrats as they have a 71 percent chance of retaining their majority. The GOP has a 29 percent chance of taking the Senate. Similarly on September 2 the same analysis had the Democrats at 68 percent and the Republicans at 32 percent. Thus, this estimate also showed a slight increase in favor of the Democrats.
The Democrat’s numbers have steadily been improving over the past few months. This doesn’t follow the historic trend of the president’s party losing seats in the midterm elections of the President’s first term. The increase in favorability for the Democrats comes despite Biden’s approval rates remaining relatively low.
As of Thursday Biden’s approval rate is at 42.3 percent, while his disapproval rate is 53.1 percent.