Could California Go Red?

There’s a good chance California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) will lose his job September 14th when the state holds a recall election. Everything will depend on voter turnout, reports Politico

There are far more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state of California, but Republicans are much more likely to participate in elections. 

There seems to be a general feeling of apathy among Democrats who may believe that Newsom’s victory is certain. Republicans, on the other hand, are jumping at the chance to elect a leader who may actually be able to solve some of the state’s problems. 

I can’t help but compare the situation to the 2016 presidential election, when Democrats were so convinced that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump that some of them didn’t bother to vote.

To prevent a Republican victory, Newsom’s campaign is flooding the airwaves with ads, going door to door with pamphlets, and sending text messages to every registered Democrat in the state. 

“It becomes less about persuasion and more about voter awareness and making sure people know an election will happen on September 14th and they will receive a ballot in the mail,” says Newsom’s campaign manager, Juan Rodriguez. “[This election] is an anomaly,” he added, and “not something people are generally thinking about.” 

Newsom has support from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who blames “Trump Republicans” for the recall election in a TV ad, and from labor unions, which have collectively spent $17 million on Newsom’s recall defense. 

The California Labor Federation plans to contact 3 million households by September 14th to educate voters about the election. 

“If they don’t know much about it, they’re not motivated to cast a ballot, but the Republicans do know about it,” says Steve Smith, a federation spokesman. “So this is a turnout election, and in a turnout election it takes more than just being on TV or being on digital to win. So that’s the role we see ourselves in at this point.”

All registered voters will receive a ballot in the mail by mid-August.

The ballot asks two questions: 1) Should Newsom be replaced? 2) If so, by whom? There are 46 potential successors listed on the ballot. If the recall is successful, whichever candidate receives the most votes will complete the remainder of Newsom’s term. 

Libertarian talk show host Larry Elder is in the lead so far, raising a whopping $4.5 million in just 19 days after announcing his candidacy in July. Elder has criticized Newsom for “ignoring science” in regards to the state’s many crises and for an opulent dinner he attended last November without a mask. 

“He was sitting with the very same lobbyists and medical professionals who drafted the mandates they were violating by not wearing masks and by not socially distancing,” said Elder.

Larry Elder says he joined the race “to see if I can do something…to move the needle in the right direction.” If Elder wins the election, he hopes to advance commonsense legislation targeting problems the liberal media tends to ignore – including crime, homelessness, shoplifting, fire suppression, water shortages, and the increasing cost of homes in California. 

Democrats are “going to work with me or they’re going to feel the heat,” says Elder. “The other thing I can do is empower the Republican minority…I’m going to make it clear to the Democrats that if you don’t include buy-in from the Republicans to make these bills far more sensible, I’m going to veto them, and that’s going to make them a lot more sensible.”

The latest RCP average shows 48% of voters want to remove Newsom and 46% want him to remain. 

Sources:

California has enough Democrats to save Newsom – if he can persuade them to vote 

Larry Elder takes GOP fundraising lead in California recall race 

Could a Conservative Replace Gavin Newsom? 

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