They say if you really want a good political prediction, forget about pundits and poll numbers, and go to the people whose livelihoods depend on getting these things right. In other words, take a look to Las Vegas, and see what the bookmakers have to say about the prospects of the various candidates. And it turns out that, even though Joe Biden is leading in most national and Iowa polls, at least one betting website thinks that Elizabeth Warren is the odds-on favorite to take home the Democratic nomination.
According to oddsmakers at US-Bookies.com … Warren has surged ahead of Joe Biden in the past week and is the favorite to win the Dem nomination to go up against Donald Trump in 2020.
Warren’s odds are currently 15/8, making her the fave over Biden who’s 11/4. Kamala Harris is 11/2 and Bernie Sanders is 6/1 … followed by bigger long shots like Pete Buttigieg at 12/1 and Beto O’Rourke at 33/1.
In terms of actually WINNING the presidency, Warren still leads the Dems at 9/2 compared to Biden at 6/1. Of course, because he’s not facing as much competition right now, Trump’s the favorite to win in 2020 overall … he’s odds are even money.
Maybe the folks over at US-Bookies.com are onto something. After all, a new Monmouth University poll shows what could be looming trouble for the former vice president. According to their latest survey, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are tied for the top spot with 20% of the vote share each while Biden is pulling in a close third with 19%. This represents a decent gain in popularity for Warren and Sanders, but what it really shows is a dramatic dropoff for Biden, who shaved 13 points of his previous Monmouth score.
2016 showed us that the “inevitable” candidates are not always the ones who actually wind up at the final dance. Could Warren pull off the upset and steal the nomination away from Uncle Joe? Perhaps. Perhaps she will.
One piece of advice, though: Don’t bet on this race, especially if you think someone like Warren or Sanders might be the next president. With the plans they’ve got in store for the country, you’re going to need to save every dime you have, trust us on that one.