According to a new poll from CNN and SSRS, more Americans than ever think that President Donald Trump will be elected to a second term in 2020. While the numbers are split almost evenly – 46% say he will and 47% say he’ll lose – it’s a dramatic improvement for Trump’s re-election numbers since the spring, when 54% of voters said he would probably lose to his Democratic challenger. CNN reports that “the share seeing a second Trump win in the offing has risen across party lines,” although the poll shows that the largest climb has been among self-described independents.
It’s difficult to say whether or not this particular poll metric depends on Trump’s rising popularity or merely the perception of his rising popularity among Republicans, but there’s no question that both factors are in the atmosphere right now. With the economy booming and the Republicans just having scored an enormous win with Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, Trump is certainly enjoying the highest approval numbers of his presidency. If he can keep things moving in a positive direction for the rest of October, the chances of Republicans holding onto the House of Representatives will be that much greater.
It’s also possible that voters see what is becoming increasingly clear: Democrats really don’t have anyone special to throw up against Trump in the 2020 election. The CNN poll shows that Democrats want Joe Biden to be their nominee; he scored 33% of voter support. Rounding out the top five choices are Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker. It’s really not clear if any of those people can pose a serious threat to Trump’s second term, although we’d reckon that Sanders has the best chance of any of them.
In an interview with the UK’s Guardian newspaper, Trump ally Newt Gingrich said that the president’s first term has given him plenty to run on in the next election.
“I think by any reasonable standard it’s been amazing,” he said. “He is stunningly effective. You have to say to yourself, ‘He may not be perfect but boy, does he get a lot done.’ He now dominates his party more decisively than anyone in modern times on the Republican side, which would not have seemed plausible two years ago.”
That, we believe, is going to be the real difference-maker going into 2020. Trump is not going to be besieged by the same phenomenon that greeted him in 2016 – hundreds of Republican defectors urging the country to vote for the Democrat. The Republican Party is (more or less) on the same page now; even his former critics have come around to the fact that this is a guy who gets things done. And with the Democrats venturing further and further into the liberal wilderness, we have to think that FOUR MORE YEARS is a very distinct possibility.