It’s an outlier as far as recent presidential polls are concerned, but a new survey from the Democracy Institute shows President Trump taking the lead back from Democratic contender Joe Biden.
The poll, which was commissioned by the Sunday Express, has Trump leading Biden 48 to 46 percent nationally and opening up a lead in several important swing states. If this poll is closer to the truth than the others we’ve seen over the last couple of months, Biden’s presidential aspirations may be quite a bit shakier than anyone realized.
Overall, this poll has Trump nationally at 48 percent to Biden’s 46 percent with six percent undecided. Among white voters, Trump leads 53 percent to 46 percent. Trump is surprisingly strong with black voters at 20 percent in this poll—he got about eight percent of the black vote in 2016—while this survey has Biden at 77 percent. Hispanic voters in this poll break for Biden 51 percent to 38 percent, which would also represent an increase for the president over his 2016 performance with Hispanics.
“Crucially, President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which would put him back in the White House with an electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229,” David Maddox, the political editor for the Sunday Express, wrote about his newspaper’s survey.
The poll has Trump leading in Florida 47 to 45 percent, leading in Minnesota 46 percent to 45 percent, and in New Hampshire 46 percent to 43 percent.
Maddox said that the survey shows that Americans are growing more concerned about the former vice president’s mental state.
“Concerns that Mr Biden may be suffering from the early stages of dementia are also increasingly boosting Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the Presidential election, a new poll has revealed,” Maddox wrote. “According to this month’s poll 58 percent believe Mr Biden is suffering from cognitive decline compared to 55 percent last month. More worryingly for the former Vice President and Senator, is that 48 percent are less likely to vote for him as a result compared to 40 percent a month ago.”
Well, this is interesting. Much has been written lately about how your traditional polls from CBS, CNN, and Quinnipiac have been undersampling Republican voters, which could, all by itself, explain why Biden appears to be running away with the race. If this poll is taking a more accurate sample of Trump supporters, it stands to reason that it will give us a whole different picture of the contest.
Now the question becomes: Which picture is the right one?