If you heard a sound like air seeping out of a balloon Tuesday night, don’t worry: It was just this nation’s Democrats coming to the realization that their predictions of a massive “blue wave” in November may have been just a tad overblown.
You could tell from the coverage on CNN and MSNBC that liberals were hoping for a big night in Texas. The primaries kicked off and Democrats were certain that vote tallies would prove that Trump and the Republicans were going to be in HUGE trouble when the midterms arrived in November. They took a brief break from celebrating all of the meaningless local special elections they’ve won since Trump assumed office and put all of their attention on the Lone Star State. Gee whiz, this is exciting!
And then…a dud.
According to the Texas Tribune, “the minority party in the state fell short of the GOP in the vote tally once again.”
“We have been hearing for weeks in Texas and across the country that a great ‘blue wave’ was coming to Texas,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said. “But the votes have been counted and we know that so-called ‘blue wave’ never made landfall.”
It wasn’t ALL bad news for Texas Democrats. While they fell short of the Republicans in terms of getting the vote out, they did improve on their primary turnout from 2014. Whether that holds up as we head into the elections in November is anyone’s guess…but it’s increasingly obvious that for whatever victories the left might claim in the midterms, turning Texas blue isn’t going to be one of them.
And, frankly, they may be in trouble around the country as well. Blue wave? According to a new poll from Axios and SurveyMonkey, it could look more like a blue bloodbath:
Five Senate Democrats would lose to Republican candidates if the elections were held today and three have approval ratings under 50%, according to new Axios/SurveyMonkey polls.
Why it matters: Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states that President Trump won in 2016. In six of those states, Trump’s approval is higher than 50% (compared to 43% nationally). These numbers underscore how hard it will be for Democrats to pick up the two seats needed to win the majority despite Trump’s troubles.
The most vulnerable senators are Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Each of their approval ratings is either under 50% or just above it, while Trump’s is well above that in all three states.
If we learned anything in 2016, it was that the polls don’t mean anything. They are a soft guideline and nothing more. It all comes down to the election. Who will show up? Where will the enthusiasm be? It remains to be seen. But if these numbers come anywhere close to holding up between now and November, the Republican Party will have no trouble holding onto their power in Washington for another two years.